Inside this simulator
Take an existing allocation and put it through scenario and Monte Carlo stress testing. You choose the shock — a 2022-style inflation regime, a bank-stress flight to quality, a crypto-specific exchange failure — and read the distribution of outcomes rather than a single point estimate.
What you'll do
- Select historical and hypothetical shock scenarios and apply them to a live book
- Run Monte Carlo paths and interpret percentile bands instead of averages
- Identify which sleeve drives the tail, not just the mean
- Translate the output into a sentence a client can actually understand
Skills you'll evidence
- Distinguishing scenario analysis from Monte Carlo simulation and knowing when each belongs in a review
- Reading a 5th-percentile outcome and pricing it into an allocation decision
- Documenting stress-test evidence for compliance review
Who it's for
Advisors preparing annual reviews or IPS documentation where a digital-asset position needs a defensible downside case.
Common questions
- What is the difference between a scenario test and a Monte Carlo test?
- A scenario test applies one specific set of shocks — say, equities down 30% while bonds fall 10% — and shows one outcome. Monte Carlo re-samples thousands of return paths and produces a distribution, which is what you need when the question is 'how bad could this get' rather than 'what happens in 2008 again'.
- Can stress-test results be used in client documentation?
- The exercise is educational and its outputs are simulated, so they are not investment advice. The value is procedural: you practise producing and explaining the evidence your compliance team will ask for.
Status: Coming soon.